FanBoardHQ

Arkansas State

Arkansas State University · 2023 · Sun Belt

FanBoardHQ CFP
#91
Efficiency
-9.4
105th FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 14
Arkansas State Fanboard →

Arkansas State went 6-7 and was ranked 91st in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 91st-ranked defense carried them, with a 96th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 70th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with an 89th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-1
Q4
6-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
84th
-4.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
85th
full season
85th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
78th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ OklahomaBig 12#11L 073-32.20%-40.3Q1
2vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#36L 337-10.50%-34.0Q3
3vs Stony BrookCoastal AthleticW 317+32.4100%-14.1Q4
4vs Southern MissSun Belt#119W 4437+9.2100%-12.3Q4
5@ MassachusettsFBS Independents#127W 5228+7.6100%11.5Q4
6@ TroySun Belt#28L 337-21.50%-15.8Q2
8vs Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#63L 1727-6.30%-15.2Q4
9@ ULMSun Belt#130W 3424+6.4100%-3.6Q4
10vs LouisianaSun Belt#87W 3717-1.9100%14.7Q4
11@ South AlabamaSun Belt#70L 1421-16.10%-0.6Q2
12vs Texas StateSun Belt#71W 7731-3.7100%28.2Q4
13@ MarshallSun Belt#86L 2135-3.70%-29.6Q4
Postseason
vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#84L 1921-1.80%-11.5Q4

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Arkansas State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-34.8-6.0+22.7-40-34-14-1211-16-15-415-128-30Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 89th
SR 103rdYPP 77thEPA 89th
RushingEff 70th
SR 82ndYPP 62ndEPA 73rd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 111th
SR 87thYPP 106thEPA 119th
Rush defenseEff 81st
SR 79thYPP 83rdEPA 77th
Dropback rate 48%Tempo -3.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 86th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 37%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 46%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 93.0Q1 · Allowed: 96.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 69.0Q2 · Allowed: 122.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 73.0Q3 · Allowed: 86.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 75.0Q4 · Allowed: 76.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledArkansas StateOffenseDefense
Arkansas State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 96th
-4.7
Field position: -1.1Finishing drives: -3.6
Field position -1.1Finishing drives -3.6= -4.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 103rd · Finishing 94th

Defensive EffRanked 91st
-2.8
Field position: +0.6Finishing drives: -3.3
Field position +0.6Finishing drives -3.3= -2.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 44th · Finishing 97th

2.03 points per drive on offense, 2.43 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(199)43% / 57%46%6.7
Q2(229)54% / 46%38%5.6
Q3(190)52% / 48%43%5.7
Q4(201)44% / 56%37%6.3
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(146)10.049%9.4
2nd(129)8.541%6.5
3rd(114)8.028%4.4
4th(9)6.244%8.3
All (398)40%7.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(227)9.840%5.1
2nd(131)7.339%5.5
3rd(52)5.158%4.5
4th(11)2.827%5.4
All (421)41%5.2

Arkansas State, all games.